How is Macroeconomics like the Weather?

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   When Goldman Sachs announced it is revising it's 3rd quarter GDP number DOWN to 2.7% from 3.0% and then Commerce announces the VERY NEXT day that it's 3.5%.

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Moraen Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Senior Member Joined: Jan. 22 2009 Posts: 2420	Quote Reply Topic: How is Macroeconomics like the Weather? Posted: Oct. 29 2009 at 7:54am
	When Goldman Sachs announced it is revising it's 3rd quarter GDP number DOWN to 2.7% from 3.0% and then Commerce announces the VERY NEXT day that it's 3.5%.
	Really? You believe that?

SometimesNowhere Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Senior Member Joined: Dec. 22 2008 Posts: 882	Quote Reply Posted: Oct. 29 2009 at 11:02am
	Goes to show nobody knows what the hell is going on. 25% difference in GDP numbers...sheesh...In weather terms it seems like predicting a sunny day and getting tagged with a hurricane.

henrybar Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Groupie Joined: Sept. 22 2009 Posts: 91	Quote Reply Posted: Oct. 29 2009 at 11:17am
	Not sure I believe commerce department...not to say they are lying but maybe calculating differently.. Just like CPI, I think they totally make that one up...

Moraen Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Senior Member Joined: Jan. 22 2009 Posts: 2420	Quote Reply Posted: Oct. 29 2009 at 12:39pm
	Possibly, but it won't be THAT far off.
	Really? You believe that?

LSUAlum Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Groupie Joined: Oct. 18 2009 Posts: 88	Quote Reply Posted: Oct. 30 2009 at 1:08am
	The same way John Maynard Keynes preached the role of government spending interventionist economics and is the basis for Big Government and Milton Friedman won a nobel prize for economics while advocating minimal government intervention. Everyone has to 'predict' what will happen by using metrics they believe in and in the end, it's just an educated guess. The Goldman guy theorized his metrics would go one way and they didn't.

Moraen Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Senior Member Joined: Jan. 22 2009 Posts: 2420	Quote Reply Posted: Oct. 30 2009 at 7:03am
	LSU - like the weather. Think about when people are predicting hurricanes each year. Thirty-two named storms.
	Really? You believe that?

LSUAlum Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Groupie Joined: Oct. 18 2009 Posts: 88	Quote Reply Posted: Oct. 30 2009 at 10:53am
	I'm not disagreeing with you. Best quote I have heard to describe it is from Eisenhower I think. He once said 'What I really need is a one handed economist." (For those of you that don't immediately get it, it's because most every economist will say, well on the one hand this could happen, but on the other hand this could happen). It's interesting just because of that, the data is compelling for all sides and thus the debate continues.